Monday, October 27, 2008
Labels
When entering a post, there is an opportunity to attach a "Label" to the post so that in the future we can retrieve it as well as all other posts of like label (or subject). For example, I am going to label this post "Blog Administration" (a new label). As another example, my post of just a couple of days ago was labeled "Technical Analysis" (a new label). I don't know yet whether past posts can be edited to add a label but I'll work on that.
October Meeting notes 2008
Seventeen attended the meeting including three new members (George Tucci, Jeff Chang, and Carl Zhu). Join me in again welcoming them to the group. There were 12 contributions totaling $101.00, bringing our cash on hand to $109.00. That will allow me to reserve L107 for our January 2009 meeting. Now about the meeting. The market had taken a beating the day of the meeting (Dow down 514) so that even though only one of the three major indexes undercut their recent lows, IBD's "The Big Picture/Market Pulse/Current Outlook" for the Thursday edition would be "Market in correction." So much for the October "10th " Day 1" of a rally attempt and the October 16th " Day 5" "Follow-through day.
Besides looking at the day's "Market Wrap" and "Daily Stock Analysis" at IBD's website, we looked at a number of stock charts requested by the attendees. None were worth adding to watch lists. However, in the course of looking at those charts, there were informative discussions of IBD'sCANSLIM principles and technical analysis patterns.
There was also discussion of our blog (cfibd.blogspot.com) and its infrequent use by group members. In another attempt to encourage more frequent use of the blog, I have added several new "posts" that will amplify subjects discussed at the meeting. Please go there and read the posts. No login is required to do that but one of the posts gives instructions for registering (required for adding posts of your own). I will be posting this recap there.
The next meeting of the Wilmington IBD Meetup Group will be on December 3, 2008 (First Wednesday), and I will send a reminder before then.
Your Organizer,BobRobert B Brownfield201 Yorkshire LaneWilmington, NC 28409brownfieldr@gmail.com(910) 799-7887 or (910) 470-2724 (Cell)
Besides looking at the day's "Market Wrap" and "Daily Stock Analysis" at IBD's website, we looked at a number of stock charts requested by the attendees. None were worth adding to watch lists. However, in the course of looking at those charts, there were informative discussions of IBD'sCANSLIM principles and technical analysis patterns.
There was also discussion of our blog (cfibd.blogspot.com) and its infrequent use by group members. In another attempt to encourage more frequent use of the blog, I have added several new "posts" that will amplify subjects discussed at the meeting. Please go there and read the posts. No login is required to do that but one of the posts gives instructions for registering (required for adding posts of your own). I will be posting this recap there.
The next meeting of the Wilmington IBD Meetup Group will be on December 3, 2008 (First Wednesday), and I will send a reminder before then.
Your Organizer,BobRobert B Brownfield201 Yorkshire LaneWilmington, NC 28409brownfieldr@gmail.com(910) 799-7887 or (910) 470-2724 (Cell)
Saturday, October 25, 2008
PEG follow up
Great explanation Bob (for PEG). Evaluating the PEG will tell you if you are looking at a stock that is running on momentum (PEG over 2.0) and the rise is NOT sustainable.
If the PEG is under 2.0 -the stock rise is justified. (pending other data)
If the PEG is under 1.0 - you are looking at a 'value' stock.
If the PEG is under 2.0 -the stock rise is justified. (pending other data)
If the PEG is under 1.0 - you are looking at a 'value' stock.
PEG
Prior to our last meeting (10/22/08), Bob Salmon contacted me requesting an explanation of "PEG." This is a fundamental analysis statistic that was brought to our attention by Alanna McHugh and questions about it keep coming up. The purpose of this message to the blog is to offer my understanding of the statistic and its meaning when evaluating a stock for possible purchase (along with the usual CANSLIM criteria and proper price/volume evaluation). If my explanation is off base, please reply to the blog.
PEG
PE is defined as the current price of the stock ($) divided by the current annual earning ($, trailing 4 quarters). PEG, in turn, is defined as the PE divided by the earnings growth rate. PEG is a readily available statistic on most financial web sites (for example, Yahoo Finance\ticker\key statistics (on left under Company).
In IBD’s Daily Graphs Online (premium service) PEG is not given in the data boxes of either the daily or weekly charts. However, EPS Growth Rate and PE are given and therefore the PEG can be calculated there from. IBD’s “EPS Growth Rate” is calculated using earnings data over trailing quarters and over a period of NLT 3 years and NMT 5 years.
What does the PEG statistic mean???? For a high PE stock (relative to the average PE of all S&P 500 stocks) a PEG of 2.0 or less means that the current price of the stock (usually high) is justified. Conversely, a high PE stock with a PEG of greater than 2.0 means that the current price is too high in terms of its earnings history.
PEG
PE is defined as the current price of the stock ($) divided by the current annual earning ($, trailing 4 quarters). PEG, in turn, is defined as the PE divided by the earnings growth rate. PEG is a readily available statistic on most financial web sites (for example, Yahoo Finance\ticker\key statistics (on left under Company).
In IBD’s Daily Graphs Online (premium service) PEG is not given in the data boxes of either the daily or weekly charts. However, EPS Growth Rate and PE are given and therefore the PEG can be calculated there from. IBD’s “EPS Growth Rate” is calculated using earnings data over trailing quarters and over a period of NLT 3 years and NMT 5 years.
What does the PEG statistic mean???? For a high PE stock (relative to the average PE of all S&P 500 stocks) a PEG of 2.0 or less means that the current price of the stock (usually high) is justified. Conversely, a high PE stock with a PEG of greater than 2.0 means that the current price is too high in terms of its earnings history.
Friday, October 24, 2008
cfibd.blogspot.com Administration
You got here by entering cfibd.blogspot.com in the address bar of your internet browser. Now what do you want to do? You can read all past "Posts" to your heart's content, but to enter a new post you will need to log in. If you have a google account (e-mail, etc.) use your user ID and password for that account. If you do not have a google account, then register at:
https://www.google.com/accounts/NewAccount?continue=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.blogger.com%2Floginz%3Fd%3D%252Fhome%26a%3DADD_SERVICE_FLAG&hl=en&service=blogger to register for a Google account.
Mark Hopkins has a different way of getting you established as a Blog user but I will let him post those instructions. Then you can use whichever method suits you.
On another matter. When entering a post, there is an opportunity to attach a "Label" to the post so that in the future we can retrieve it as well as all other posts of like label (or subject). For example, I am going to label this post "Blog Administration" (a new label). As another example, my post just before this one was labeled "Technical Analysis" (a new label). I don't know yet whether past posts can be edited to add a label but I'll work on that.
https://www.google.com/accounts/NewAccount?continue=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.blogger.com%2Floginz%3Fd%3D%252Fhome%26a%3DADD_SERVICE_FLAG&hl=en&service=blogger to register for a Google account.
Mark Hopkins has a different way of getting you established as a Blog user but I will let him post those instructions. Then you can use whichever method suits you.
On another matter. When entering a post, there is an opportunity to attach a "Label" to the post so that in the future we can retrieve it as well as all other posts of like label (or subject). For example, I am going to label this post "Blog Administration" (a new label). As another example, my post just before this one was labeled "Technical Analysis" (a new label). I don't know yet whether past posts can be edited to add a label but I'll work on that.
Index Bottom Wedge (Pennant)
When looking at the indices charts during our 10/22/08 Meetup, there was discussion of "Pennants" with potentials for breakouts to either the upside (rally) or the downside (deepening correction). Kent Tomaselli has sent the following timely commentary that talks to that issue. THANKS Kent.
From: HS Dent
To: kent310@msn.com
Sent: Friday, October 24, 2008 2:10 PM
Subject: HS Dent Forecast Update
HS Dent Forecast Update Friday, October 24, 2008
What a day! The futures were limit down this morning, then the Dow smashes down and tests the 8,200 support area we recently mentioned and then a modest bounce. There have been new lows on many markets from emerging markets (EEM) to the Nasdaq. Hence, we probably are heading lower into the Fed meeting early next week. The markets could be tracing out a broader wedge with the bottom trend line at 8,200 and a declining top trendline coming down from the 9,800 and 9,300 tops recently. The markets could rally back up towards 8,900 - 9,000, test that top trendline and then fail more dramatically, potentially into the 7,100 - 7,500 area. If the market could break above that downward top trend line, say above 9,000 today or 8,900 on Monday, that would be the first sign that the bottom could already be in and a sharp rally ahead. Hence, the next few days is very critical and the markets are still likely to break upward or downward more sharply. The bias is clearly to the downside scenario at this point, unless we break above 9,000 today or 8,900 on Monday.
From: HS Dent
To: kent310@msn.com
Sent: Friday, October 24, 2008 2:10 PM
Subject: HS Dent Forecast Update
HS Dent Forecast Update Friday, October 24, 2008
What a day! The futures were limit down this morning, then the Dow smashes down and tests the 8,200 support area we recently mentioned and then a modest bounce. There have been new lows on many markets from emerging markets (EEM) to the Nasdaq. Hence, we probably are heading lower into the Fed meeting early next week. The markets could be tracing out a broader wedge with the bottom trend line at 8,200 and a declining top trendline coming down from the 9,800 and 9,300 tops recently. The markets could rally back up towards 8,900 - 9,000, test that top trendline and then fail more dramatically, potentially into the 7,100 - 7,500 area. If the market could break above that downward top trend line, say above 9,000 today or 8,900 on Monday, that would be the first sign that the bottom could already be in and a sharp rally ahead. Hence, the next few days is very critical and the markets are still likely to break upward or downward more sharply. The bias is clearly to the downside scenario at this point, unless we break above 9,000 today or 8,900 on Monday.
Friday, October 10, 2008
RSP trade only
RSP (an etf of s&p500 but equal weight) have taken a long position today.
Will plan on sale next week with temporary market bounce> (hopefully!!)
Will plan on sale next week with temporary market bounce> (hopefully!!)
Monday, October 6, 2008
New September Class Notes
PLEASE IGNORE THE PREVIOUS "RECAP." Somehow it got sent before I was finished.Here's a recap of our September 25th meeting.Please acknowledge receipt of this message signifying that you have seen and read it.
Eight attended the meeting including Steve Jacobs a past Organizer andCharter member returning after a very long absence. Join me in welcoming Steve back. There were 5 contributions totaling $35.00, bringing our cash onhand to $208.00. I have used $200 of that balance to reserve L107 for thefollowing dates: October 22nd ((Fourth Wednesday) and December 3rd (firstWednesday). This last date is somewhat unusual because the fourth Wednesdayis Thanksgiving eve and we usually do not meet in December.We arrived at our usual L107 only to find it occupied with a very large GEDgroup. After some frantic phone calls, we were relocated to a room (L202)in the 2nd floor library that turned out to be even better than L107. Theroom was smaller with 24 desks each with an internet accessible computer andflat screen monitor. Several in attendance commented that the projectedcharts were easier to see because all were closer to the projection screen.For next year I will look into using the room instead of L107. There is onecaveat that I would like everyone to consider. Since the library closes at 9:00 PM sharp, we would need to begin our exit about 8:45 PM. Perhaps we could begin our meeting at 6:30 PM instead of 7:00 PM so as to get in a full two hours. Think about it.Now about the meeting. The meeting day was a "Follow-Through" day, day 6 of a rally attempt that began on September 18th. Little did we know how badlythe rally would fail in the days since then.At the request of David Pyle (not present) there was some discussion of UNG,the natural gas ETF, until Kent Tomaselli "encouraged" us to return to CANSLIM principles. At that point we looked at several stocks offered by those in attendance, including several from Kent's watch list, all inanticipation a continued rally AND a possible "POP" from the pending"bailout" legislation: WFC, CLNE, WBSN, IDXX, CCC, CVD, and AGNC.The next meeting of the Wilmington IBD Meetup Group will be on October 22,2008 (Fourth Wednesday), and I will send a reminder before then.Your Organizer,Bob
Robert B Brownfield201 Yorkshire LaneWilmington, NC 28409rbrownfield1@ec.rr.com(910) 799-7887 or (910) 470-2724 (Cell)
Eight attended the meeting including Steve Jacobs a past Organizer andCharter member returning after a very long absence. Join me in welcoming Steve back. There were 5 contributions totaling $35.00, bringing our cash onhand to $208.00. I have used $200 of that balance to reserve L107 for thefollowing dates: October 22nd ((Fourth Wednesday) and December 3rd (firstWednesday). This last date is somewhat unusual because the fourth Wednesdayis Thanksgiving eve and we usually do not meet in December.We arrived at our usual L107 only to find it occupied with a very large GEDgroup. After some frantic phone calls, we were relocated to a room (L202)in the 2nd floor library that turned out to be even better than L107. Theroom was smaller with 24 desks each with an internet accessible computer andflat screen monitor. Several in attendance commented that the projectedcharts were easier to see because all were closer to the projection screen.For next year I will look into using the room instead of L107. There is onecaveat that I would like everyone to consider. Since the library closes at 9:00 PM sharp, we would need to begin our exit about 8:45 PM. Perhaps we could begin our meeting at 6:30 PM instead of 7:00 PM so as to get in a full two hours. Think about it.Now about the meeting. The meeting day was a "Follow-Through" day, day 6 of a rally attempt that began on September 18th. Little did we know how badlythe rally would fail in the days since then.At the request of David Pyle (not present) there was some discussion of UNG,the natural gas ETF, until Kent Tomaselli "encouraged" us to return to CANSLIM principles. At that point we looked at several stocks offered by those in attendance, including several from Kent's watch list, all inanticipation a continued rally AND a possible "POP" from the pending"bailout" legislation: WFC, CLNE, WBSN, IDXX, CCC, CVD, and AGNC.The next meeting of the Wilmington IBD Meetup Group will be on October 22,2008 (Fourth Wednesday), and I will send a reminder before then.Your Organizer,Bob
Robert B Brownfield201 Yorkshire LaneWilmington, NC 28409rbrownfield1@ec.rr.com(910) 799-7887 or (910) 470-2724 (Cell)
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